How to Pick a Dynasty Quarterback

Building a Dynasty · Part 9 of 11

How to Pick a Dynasty Football Fantasy Quarterback

Quarterbacks are notoriously hard to value in dynasty football. They have a premium value in the NFL, so they are often over-drafted. In dynasty leagues they can take a very long time to develop into an elite dynasty QB. It can take a solid 5 years before a QB really takes off, think Baker Mayfield for example. I for one had stopped investing early in rookie drafts in QBs because it was so hit or miss. The strategy I'd point you to is trading an aging star back at peak value for a young quarterback, and then picking up QBs in the 5th round or in free agency and letting them cook. You will cycle through a lot of names that don't work. For every Josh Allen there's a Trey Lance or a Zach Wilson who had every bit of the pedigree and never got there. If one in four sticks, you're ahead.

That was before I endeavored to create my Dynasty MatriX database and now it's much clearer to me how to strategize around investing in QBs. This article will explain the strategy and show you the statistics to back it up. You'll only get it here at Dynasty Football Fan! First, let's look at QB hit rates by decile...

What you see here is a stark reminder that there are only 32 starting QB positions in the NFL and to be in the top half of that productivity curve is a difficult endeavor for a good prospect, let alone the poor ones. Here are some thoughts to consider on this chart:

• First, you'll see that you only want to pick a QB if they are decile 4 or above. Those columns in decile 8 and decile 10 are two QBs...Tom Brady and Marc Bulger. Brady's story is so famous there is no need to repeat it. Marc Bulger had the good fortune to run the greatest show on turf for a bit of time. Bottom line, those two guys are outliers and impossible to predict. Sticking to the first four deciles is the only strategy worth considering.
• Second, you'll see that decile 1 QBs have a 71% hit rate. This means over their first five seasons they performed in the top 20% of historic rookie QB fantasy performance. That's a really good ratio. If you're in the market for a QB, targeting a decile 1 QB if you can is the fastest way to build your QB room.
• Third, decile 2 (36%) has a worse hit rate than decile 3 (50%). I wouldn't read too much into this. Despite our database going back to 2001, we still only have 139 QBs in our 5 year fantasy production data set between 2001-2012 prospects. The way I think of this is that between decile 2 & 3 a QB has between a 36%-50% chance of succeeding. And if you are in the mid-rounds of your rookie draft, that's enough to take a chance on a decile 2 or 3 guy.
• Finally there is decile 4 with a 21% hit rate. Still not a bad hit rate for decile 4. Decile 4 RBs hit at 12% for example. Being that there is a complete drop off between decile 4 and decile 5, I suggest picking up decile 4 QBs in the later rounds of rookie drafts as fliers.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a QB scatter plot for all QBs in the 5 year production data set:

The red line here represents the hit rate, to the right of the line QBs hit, to the left they do not. On the vertical axis is DMX score and on the horizontal axis is first 5 year fantasy production. You'll notice that the best production comes from QBs with DMX scores above 0.50. that's a line in the sand you want to keep in mind when choosing QBs.

What' you'll also notice is that above 0.50 there are just as many dots on the left side of the hit rate line than on the right side. What this is saying is that QB choosing is hit and miss. We know that already, but it's worth emphasizing. For every Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts there is a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson.You can't expect a high level rookie DMX score to automatically produce fantasy points. To a certain extent it is a role of the dice, even for the elite prospects.

This leads me to the following conclusions when choosing QBs, my strategy based on this data is as follows:

• Don't pick QBs below the 4th decile
• Within the top 4 deciles, focus on QBs above 0.50 DMX score
• When possible, choose decile 1 QBs, especially if they fall into round 2
• Choose decile 2 & 3 QBs in the mid-rounds
• Choose decile 4 QBs in the late rounds
• Be patient, a QB investment can take 4-5 years to pay off, don't get impatient with a decile 1-4 prospect and unload them before their time.
• If your QB room lacks depth, pick multiple decile 1-4 players over successive years.

It's tough to trade your way into a deep QB roster, you'll end up thinning out your RB or WR room which is a dangerous proposition. The best value is to hold onto your elite prospects if you have any. If you don't, trade for mid-level depth for short periods if you need it (think Sam Darnold or Geno Smith) and then invest the lower end of your roster with QBs that you can stash for 4-5 years that fit the criteria set forth above. They won't all hit, but if you have 3 or 4, at least two should hit and that will be enough to give you the depth you need at the QB position. With QB careers going well into the late 30's these days, this strategy can pay dividends for well over a decade in dynasty leagues.