Rookie Draft Strategies That Work
Building a Dynasty · Part 7 of 11
Building a Dynasty - Rookie Drafting Strategies
This is the next in the line of dynasty strategy articles I call Building a Dynasty. This installment we talk about rookie draft strategies. The rookie draft is the heart of your team building once you are past your startup draft. While trades and free agency will help fill in your gaps, the rookie drafts is your lifeline to new league talent. Here are some strategies to maximize the benefits of your annual rookie draft.
Strategize more than a year in advance
During the run up to one draft there is typically information about thoughts regarding the next draft. For example, this year there have been many discussions about the 2026 class and how weak it is. Our Draft Board confirms that when you consider how few topflight players there are in this draft vs previous years. Many people are trading 2026 picks in order to stash 2027 picks in hopes they position themselves for better players than they can get this year. You do have to decide whether you believe this will come to fruition, there are reasons (injury, staying in school, ineffectiveness) why players don't live up to the hype from a year earlier. The point is, there is information out there to be had and how much you believe it can and should impact your rookie draft strategy. After every NFL draft there are always several articles on the next drafts prospects. Be aware of this and you can trade on it. It might not always work in your favor, but with this type of early information often where there is smoke, there is fire.
Don't neglect defense in IDP leagues
It pains me to see this, an IDP league team with an incredible set of offensive players and no defense whatsoever. Typically these teams do fairly well but can't get over the hump and win a championship because of it. This is usually due to not picking enough IDPs in their rookie draft. Just like the thought that you're not going to build a solid RB corp without picking an RB in the top few rounds every year, you're not going to build a solid LB corp without picking LBs in the 3rd to 5th rounds. Picking up free agent LBs can work but you're not going to get the elite ones if you don't invest in them. Elite DT/DEs and Safeties can be picked off in the 4th or 5th round too. Why would you not take an elite prospect with your 4th pick rather than the 15th WR off the board? Don't neglect IDP players in your draft. The balanced teams usually win championships in IDP leagues. Every position is important.
Don't drop players until you have to do so
Some people just don't bother to read the rules. Some people are into so many leagues they can't remember the rules from league to league. Either way, don't be that person. Know the rules and use them to your advantage. For example, if you're league opens up IR slots during the off season so you can stash players and make room on the active roster for more, use that and don't drop players until you absolutely have to do so. If you have roster limits or position limits that change during the off season make sure you're aware of it and use it to your advantage. You don't want to drop a player unless you have to and if your rules change over the off season, don't drop players until you have to do so!
Be Patient, let the draft come to you
I always go into the draft with a strategy, a game plan. I know what I want and through study of ADP information I know generally what I can get in each round. There are always surprises but generally drafts are very orderly that way and people stick to the herd mentality and take someone around where they are "supposed" to be taken. In every draft, there are players that don't get picked where they are supposed to get picked though and their value becomes worth the risk to take. You have to have the flexibility in your strategy to take advantage of these moments. If you find yourself in the third round and a 2nd round player is still available, change your strategy if you believe in that player and take them. You have to be patient and let the draft come to you. Always have a strategy but be flexible and open to changing if value falls to you. I rarely trade up, it's usually not worth the risk of giving up a couple of picks and players for one player that may or may not work out. But trading down can create value and can also put you in position to gain from players that have dropped below their current ADP without reason.
Always take the best available in round 1
The draft is a 50/50 proposition, you are never going to have all of your picks stick on your team. You do want as many first round picks to stick on your team though. The first round is critical, which is obvious to most but you'd be surprised on how many reaches I see in my drafts. People go for need instead of best available and that need continues to be a need when the player reached for does not meet first round quality standards. Always take the best available player in round 1. A smart draft technician can position themselves to take a position of need and the best available by trading up or down a few spots if it is not too costly to do so. Even if it is too costly to do so, if you're stacked with WRs and WR is the best available, take him! you can always trade on his value after the draft to find a quality RB if that's your need. Always take the best available in round 1, reaching is no fun in the long run!
Rookie Dynasty Draft Strategies That Work
One of the most exciting parts of dynasty football is the rookie draft. Once a year you get to pick players with no track record and a ton of potential who will fill some hole on your roster. Let's be honest though, rookie drafting is a risky proposition and in my experience, in 15 years of commissioning dynasty leagues, at best you have a 50/50 chance of any particular pick making an impact on your team. I've had 1st round busts and 5th round (out of 5) studs and everything in between. So how do you stack the cards in your favor? Here are a few tenets that I keep in mind when making my picks annually. They are in no particular order but they have worked for me over and over again.
Just to level set: This is based on a typical rookie draft with 5 rounds and 12 teams (60 picks). This considers IDPs so we draft both offense and defense. A lot of these types of drafts are currently ongoing or will be starting really soon, so this is the perfect time to roll-out some good advice!
Tenet #1 -
Two WRs are Better Than OneIn almost every draft in which I’ve taken a WR I’ve actually taken 2. Here’s my rational: WRs take longer to develop than QBs, RBs and TEs for the most part (i.e. the 3rd year WR rule) and even then there is a lot of variability around 1st and 2nd round NFL WRs. If you take two that you like in the first 3 rounds there are only 3 scenarios that will occur and two of them are favorable. Scenario #1, both WRs develop into productive players for you. Scenario #2, one develops and the other is a bust. Scenario #3, both WRs are a bust. Now, Scenario #1 is both obvious and rare but Scenario #2 is also a darn good deal. Given that it can take 3 years or more for WRs to reach their full fantasy potential, if I told you that if you drafted 6 WRs and half would be productive for you, wouldn’t you rather do that over 3 years than over 6 years and have 3 quality starting WRs over a shorter period of time? Now, it’s also possible that Scenario #3 occurs but I’ve found that to be rare too. Look at what that pattern would have looked like in the last few drafts. In 2021 you could have taken Ja'Marr Chase and Rashod Bateman and come away with a Star and a long-term Starter, which is Scenario #1 and it's rare. More often you get 2022: Chris Olave and John Metchie, or George Pickens and Skyy Moore. Both of those pairs gave you one Star and one guy who never found a role. Same shape in 2023 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jonathan Mingo. That's eight receivers across three classes, four of them Stars, and only one pairing where both guys hit. Scenario #2 over and over again, and Scenario #2 is a darn good deal. Notice too that you'd have been taking them in bunches rather than one a year. That's how you do it. And if you paired a receiver from this year's class with one from last year's, you wouldn't know yet how it turned out, which is rather the point. In rookie drafts, two WRs are simply better than one!
Tenet #2 -
Your first pick is critical, don't overreachThis seems simple, like you don’t even have to say it, right? You’d be surprised how much overreach I’ve seen in my years. Picture a manager who really needs a back taking Kendre Miller ahead of Rashee Rice. Not that Miller couldn't have turned into something someday, but Rice was a producer from the get go, you don't pass on those guys. People tend to see a need and not pick the best available player in the first round. I try not to get too caught up in need early in the draft, rather focusing on getting the best player available based on my research. This is the best long term strategy and as we all know, dynasty is all about long term strategy. Again, for the most part drafts are a 50/50 proposition, if you miss on a few first round picks in a row, suddenly everyone around you has uber-talent and you don’t. You have to make your first pick count. How do you do that? If you pick in the top half, stick to the top 5 consensus rookies after doing your research online. Don’t pick the less talented rookie with a good situation, just because he'll get early playing time. Don’t take a QB unless it’s Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck type in the first half of the first round. If you’re at the bottom of the first round, let the draft come to you. Inevitably you will value 6 or 8 of the top players and one of them will fall to you. Make sure you take that player. Let the draft come to you. You’re first pick is critical, don’t overreach.
Tenet #3 -
Never Pick a CB or a KickerThere is just no value in a rookie draft for CBs and kickers. I’ve done both in the past and have quickly realized the folly of my ways. For the several times I've picked on of these players, none of them lasted on my team for longer than a year and none of them had any fantasy relevance whatsoever. If you use IDPs in your league, take a look at the top 20 CBs last season and tell me how many you would have drafted as a rookie. The answer will undoubtedly be, not many! Even Jalen Ramsey this year will be picked and while he is uber-talented, there is no doubt that from a fantasy perspective there will be CBs who develop and score just as many or more fantasy points in this draft. Rather than shoot for a needle in a haystack, just don’t draft a CB and pick them up as free agents. Never pick a CB or a kicker, there are plenty out there for free.
Tenet #4 –
Late picks are for IDPs, go get one!IDPs usually are not picked in the first two rounds save for LBs or other prospects that are so elite they are looked at as slam-dunk, can't miss prospects. So, a funny thing happens when IDP rookie leagues get to round 3. You can pick up the 10th best RB or WR, maybe a top 3 QB or TE too, which is no doubt a valid strategy. The other thing you can do is start taking IDPs that could improve your defense significantly if you pick wisely. If you find yourself in a situation where you're defense was very poor last year, a great strategy is to trade some low future picks or the bottom end of your roster for 4th and 5th round picks which you can then turn into IDP gems. The 3rd round can gain you quality LB prospects and DE prospects while the 4th and 5th rounds will net you LB sleepers, DE sleepers and DT and Safety studs. Don't ignore IDP if you're in that type of league, every position counts, which leads me to the next tenet...
Tenet #5 –
Every Position is Important, depth is the key to dynasty victoryThis one slightly cuts against the grain of Tenet #3, although I would argue if you can get quality CBs and kickers outside of the draft, they are still important, just not draftable. I’ve won multiple dynasty league championships in my 15 years and sometimes I've won with second tier QBs, sometimes with second tier RBs or WRs. The one thing I’ve learned is to have a well balanced team. Picture winning a league with the worst quarterback room in it, bar none. A streamer you're praying breaks the top 12 in a good week, and behind him three guys who never sniff it all year. You can win that year by being balanced everywhere else and absolutely sucking at QB. In a league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1K, 2DL, 3LB and 2DB, you don't need a starting quality QB if you have 2 top 20 RBs, 4 top 10 WRs, 3 top 10 TEs, 2 top 10 Ks, the top 2 DLs, 3 top 30 LBs and 2 top 20 DBs. Depth everywhere else carries you to the championship. The lesson here, every position is important and you should draft accordingly. Every draft has a different strategy depending on the depth at each position in the draft and your needs. If the draft is strong at DL and you need depth there, draft early and often. If you don’t need a RB, get depth in the first round at WR or QB. Make sure you see what positions are deep in each draft and try to focus on how you can exploit that, either by taking early and often or waiting for quality late and using early picks at a different position of need. The point is, every draft needs a different strategy, it's up to you to plan accordingly! Make sure you have a strategy that will focus on your needs as well as the talent that presents itself in any given round, any given year. You can win without quality at one of your key positions if you're stacked everywhere else. Good luck...and happy drafting!