Age-Weighted Production (AWP)
Data Dictionary · college production, weighted for how young a guy was when he did it
AWP is the production piece of DMX. It's a prospect's final college season, per game, adjusted for the one thing that changes what those numbers even mean: how old he was. A thousand yards from a 19-year-old and a thousand yards from a 22-year-old are two different things, and AWP scores them that way. Strength of schedule isn't baked in here — that rides along in draft capital (DPOS), because the NFL already prices where a small-school guy belongs when they decide where to draft him.
Why age is the multiplier
Producing young, against older competition, is about the strongest college signal there is. A teenager taking carries from 22-year-old teammates and beating 21-year-old defenders is showing you something a fifth-year senior feasting on younger kids just isn't. That's why anybody serious about prospects age-adjusts production now, and it's why AWP scores by age instead of raw stat lines.
What goes into AWP
A few sub-signals feed it, and you can see every one of them on a player's detail panel:
- Market-share yardage — the share of his team's offense a player commanded, which survives differences in team pace and quality better than raw totals.
- Age score — production scaled by how young the player was when he did it.
- Phenom signal — credit for players productive enough, early enough, to declare ahead of schedule.
- Dominator-style share — the classic dominator concept: a player's share of team receiving/rushing yards and touchdowns.
For quarterbacks, the production side shifts to passing efficiency — yards per attempt, TD-to-INT, passer-rating-type stuff. For defensive prospects, AWP gets swapped out entirely for havoc share.
What production can't tell you
Production is the noisiest of the three DMX pieces. It's tangled up with scheme, quarterback play, and the guys around him in ways no adjustment fully scrubs out. That's exactly why I treat it as one vote of three, not the final word. When elite AWP shows up next to real draft capital, that combination has historically been dangerous — the worked example over in the DMX guide, a 2026 D1 RB with +2.06 AWP and +2.48 DPOS on so-so testing, is the archetype. Elite production the NFL passed on paying for? That's a murkier signal, and the model prices it that way.
Frequently asked questions
What is a dominator rating?
It's a player's share of his own team's receiving or rushing production — the yards and the touchdowns. A share holds up better than raw totals when teams play at different paces and different quality, and a dominator-style share is one of the sub-signals inside AWP.
Why does age matter so much in prospect production?
Because doing it against older competition tells you something. A 19-year-old carrying a huge share of the offense is a different animal than a 22-year-old senior putting up the same line, so AWP scales production by how old he was when he did it.
Why does AWP use the final college season?
It's the most recent look and the most predictive one, taken per game and scaled by age. And because it's age-scaled, a young final season already gives credit to a guy who broke out early.
How is FCS production handled?
The same way I measure it for everybody — market share scaled by age, no school-strength multiplier bolted on. Strength of schedule comes in through draft capital (DPOS) instead: NFL teams scout every level, so a small-school guy who goes high already carries that signal. That said, I'd still do extra homework on a small-school profile.