Age-Weighted Production (AWP)
Data Dictionary · college production, corrected for the two things that matter
AWP is the production component of DMX: a prospect's final college season, per game, normalized by the two variables that change what production means — age and competition level. A thousand-yard season from a 19-year-old in the Power 5 and the same line from a 22-year-old against Group of 5 defenses are different facts, and AWP scores them differently.
Why age is the multiplier
Producing against older competition is the strongest college signal there is. A teenager taking touches from 22-year-old teammates and beating 21-year-old defenders is demonstrating something a fifth-year senior feasting on younger players is not. Age-adjusting production has become standard in serious prospect analysis for exactly this reason — and it's why AWP uses age-relative scoring rather than raw stat lines.
What goes into AWP
Several sub-signals feed the composite, all visible as outputs on player detail panels:
- Market-share yardage — the share of his team's offense a player commanded, which survives differences in team pace and quality better than raw totals.
- Age score — production scaled by how young the player was when he did it.
- Phenom signal — credit for players productive enough, early enough, to declare ahead of schedule.
- Dominator-style share — the classic dominator concept: a player's share of team receiving/rushing yards and touchdowns.
- Competition tier — Power 5 / Group of 5 / FCS adjustment, so a stat line is graded against the defenses that allowed it.
For quarterbacks, the production signals shift to passing efficiency (yards per attempt, TD/INT, passer-rating-style scoring); for defensive prospects, AWP is replaced entirely by havoc share.
What production can't tell you
College production is the noisiest of the three DMX components — it's entangled with scheme, quarterback quality, and supporting casts in ways no normalization fully removes. That's precisely why it's one witness of three rather than the verdict: when elite AWP shows up alongside real draft capital, the combination has historically been potent (the worked example in the DMX guide — a 2026 D1 RB with +2.12 AWP and +2.48 DPOS on modest testing — is the archetype). Elite production that the NFL declined to pay for is a much more ambiguous signal, and the model prices it that way.
Frequently asked questions
What is a dominator rating?
A player's share of his own team's receiving or rushing output - yards and touchdowns. Share-based production survives differences in team pace and quality better than raw totals, and a dominator-style share is one of the sub-signals inside AWP.
Why does age matter so much in prospect production?
Because producing against older competition is evidence of a different caliber of player. A 19-year-old earning a huge offensive share is demonstrating something a 22-year-old senior doing the same is not - so AWP scales production by the age at which it happened.
Why does AWP use the final college season?
The final season is the most recent and most predictive snapshot, taken per-game and normalized by age and competition tier. The age scaling means a young final season implicitly credits early-career dominance.
How is FCS production handled?
Through a competition-tier adjustment (Power 5 / Group of 5 / FCS), so stat lines are graded against the level of defense that allowed them. Small-school profiles still warrant extra qualitative diligence - a documented model limitation.