The ATH Score: Athleticism, Measured Properly
Data Dictionary · combine testing without the highlight-reel bias
ATH is the athleticism component of DMX: NFL Combine and pro-day testing — 40-yard dash, vertical and broad jump, 3-cone, shuttle, bench press, height-adjusted weight — each z-scored within the prospect's position cohort and rolled into four sub-components (Speed, Agility, Lower-body Power, Strength) and one composite. It measures athletic tools the way the data supports: as one input among three, not a verdict.
The uncomfortable truth about combine numbers
Taken alone, individual combine drills are weak predictors of fantasy careers. The platform's published correlation analysis (on the Analytics page) makes the point bluntly: the best single combine test anywhere is the TE 40-yard dash, at a correlation of just −0.252 with 5-year career VBD. QB broad jump comes in around +0.202. And the most-hyped number in the building — the 40 time for WRs and RBs — has near-zero correlation with career value on its own.
That's not an argument that athleticism is irrelevant; it's an argument against reading drills raw. Speed matters conditional on a player's size, position, and whether his college tape shows the speed translating to football. A composite captures that; a stopwatch doesn't.
How ATH is built
- Position-normed z-scores. A 4.55 forty is ordinary for a WR and exceptional for a TE. Every metric is scored within the position cohort, so “fast” always means fast for the job.
- Height-adjusted weight. Mass matters relative to frame; the size input is adjusted rather than raw.
- Four sub-components. Speed (ATH-SPD), Agility (ATH-AGIL), Lower-body Power (ATH-LP), and Strength (ATH-STR) — visible on player detail panels, so you can see which kind of athlete a prospect is, not just how much.
- One composite. The sub-components blend into a single ATH z-score that enters the DMX composite alongside DPOS and AWP.
The workout-warrior trap
The composite structure of DMX is the built-in defense against the classic combine mistake. An elite ATH score with weak age-adjusted production and modest draft capital is one loud witness against two quiet ones — and the model treats it that way. Historically, the prospects who hit are the ones where independent signals agree; pure testing spikes without production or capital backing have always been the lowest-yield archetype in the dataset.
The reverse error matters too: a slow 40 on a player with elite production and real draft capital is mostly noise. The data says the league already watched the tape.
Coverage and noise
ATH is built from combine plus pro-day testing, so prospects who skip drills at the combine are usually still covered. The honest caveat, documented in the model's known limits: small-school prospects with limited testing exposure carry noisier ATH scores, and deserve extra qualitative diligence before you trust the number.
Frequently asked questions
Which combine drill predicts fantasy success best?
None of them strongly on their own. The best single test in the platform's published analysis is the TE 40-yard dash at a correlation of just -0.252 with 5-year career value; the WR and RB 40 times are near zero alone. Composites of position-normed scores carry the real signal.
Does a fast 40 time matter for a WR?
By itself, barely - the published correlation for WR 40 times with career value is near zero. Speed matters in context: relative to position and size, and corroborated by production. That's what the ATH composite encodes.
What are the four ATH sub-components?
Speed (ATH-SPD), Agility (ATH-AGIL), Lower-body Power (ATH-LP), and Strength (ATH-STR) - each built from position-normed z-scores of the underlying drills, and visible on player detail panels.
What if a prospect didn't test at the combine?
Pro-day results are included, so most prospects are covered. Players with very limited testing - common for small-school prospects - get a noisier ATH score, a documented limitation worth extra diligence.