Havoc Share: Production Scoring for IDP
Data Dictionary · the defensive answer to age-weighted production
Havoc share is the production metric for defensive prospects: a player's share of his team's total defensive disruption — sacks + tackles for loss + forced fumbles + interceptions + passes defensed. It replaces AWP in the IDP version of DMX, because raw defensive counting stats are too scheme-dependent to compare across prospects.
Why shares instead of counts
Defensive box-score stats are hostage to context in a way offensive stats aren't. An edge rusher's sack total depends on whether his coordinator blitzes, how often opponents are behind and throwing, and how good the rusher opposite him is. Tackle totals reward playing on bad defenses that face seventy snaps a game. Counting stats measure the scheme as much as the player.
A share asks a more durable question: of all the disruption this defense generated, how much of it was this player? A defender producing 25% of his team's havoc events is a different prospect from one producing 8%, regardless of whether the defense was elite or terrible, fast-paced or slow. The five havoc components — sacks, TFL, forced fumbles, INTs, passes defensed — cover both front-seven and secondary disruption, so the metric travels across positions.
Where it fits in IDP DMX
Defensive prospects get the same three-component structure as offensive ones: ATH from testing, DPOS from draft capital, and havoc share standing in for production. The composite weights are separately calibrated for defense (and, like the offensive weights, not published). The result is the IDP Draft Board — 2,987 defensive prospects scored across the 2004–2026 classes.
The 2004 line
IDP coverage starts at 2004 for an honest reason: comprehensive defensive college statistics simply don't exist in any clean, terms-of-service-respecting public source before then. Rather than imputing fake production, earlier defensive classes carry an ATH+DPOS-only score with the production component explicitly null and a reduced-confidence flag on the Draft Board. A model that invents data where none exists isn't being thorough; it's lying with extra steps.
Using it
Flip the Draft Board to the DEF side for the full IDP board — scores, deciles, and havoc-share components for every defensive class since 2004. The same decile logic applies as on offense: deciles are assigned within position and draft year, and the raw score is the better cross-class comparator.
Frequently asked questions
What stats make up havoc share?
Five disruption events: sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions, and passes defensed - summed for the player and divided by his team's total, giving his share of the defense's disruption.
Why does IDP scoring start with the 2004 draft class?
Because no clean public source of comprehensive defensive college statistics exists before 2004. Earlier defensive classes get an ATH+DPOS-only score with production explicitly null rather than imputed, flagged as reduced-confidence.
Why use a share instead of raw sack or tackle totals?
Raw defensive counts measure scheme and circumstance - blitz rates, game scripts, defensive quality - as much as the player. A share of team disruption isolates how much of the havoc was his, and travels across schemes and positions.
Where can I see IDP DMX scores?
On the Draft Board's DEF view: 2,987 defensive prospects across the 2004-2026 classes, with scores, deciles, and component breakdowns.