Havoc Share: Production Scoring for IDP
Data Dictionary · the defensive answer to age-weighted production
Havoc share is the production number for defensive prospects. It's a player's share of his team's total defensive disruption — sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions, passes defensed. It takes the place of AWP in the IDP version of DMX, because raw defensive counting stats are way too scheme-dependent to compare guys against each other.
Why shares instead of counts
Defensive box-score stats are at the mercy of context in a way offensive stats just aren't. An edge rusher's sack total rides on whether his coordinator blitzes, how often opponents are behind and throwing, and how good the guy rushing opposite him is. Tackle totals reward playing on a bad defense that's on the field for seventy snaps a game. Counting stats measure the scheme about as much as the player.
A share asks a sturdier question: of all the disruption this defense created, how much of it was this guy? A defender responsible for 25% of his team's havoc is a different prospect than one at 8%, whether the defense was elite or awful, fast or slow. The five havoc pieces — sacks, TFL, forced fumbles, INTs, passes defensed — cover both the front seven and the secondary, so the metric works across positions.
Where it fits in IDP DMX
Defensive prospects get the same three-piece setup as offensive ones: ATH from testing, DPOS from draft capital, and havoc share standing in for production. The weights are calibrated separately for defense (and, like the offensive ones, I keep them to myself). That gives you the IDP Draft Board — 2,987 defensive prospects scored across the 2004–2026 classes.
The 2004 line
IDP coverage starts at 2004 for an honest reason: clean, public, TOS-respecting defensive college stats just don't exist before then. So instead of making up production, the earlier defensive classes get an ATH+DPOS-only score with the production piece left explicitly null and a reduced-confidence flag on the Draft Board. Inventing data where there isn't any isn't being thorough. It's just lying with extra steps.
Using it
Flip the Draft Board over to the DEF side for the full IDP board — scores, deciles, and havoc-share components for every defensive class since 2004. Worth knowing that the deciles work differently on this side than on offense: IDP deciles get ranked inside each position and draft year, so here the raw score is the better tool for comparing across classes.
Frequently asked questions
What stats make up havoc share?
Five disruption events — sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions, and passes defensed — added up for the player and divided by his team's total, which gives you his share of the defense's disruption.
Why does IDP scoring start with the 2004 draft class?
Because there's no clean public source of comprehensive defensive college stats before 2004. Earlier defensive classes get an ATH+DPOS-only score with production left null instead of made up, and flagged as reduced-confidence.
Why use a share instead of raw sack or tackle totals?
Raw defensive counts measure scheme and circumstance — blitz rates, game scripts, how good the defense was — about as much as the player. A share of team disruption isolates how much of the havoc was actually his, and it holds up across schemes and positions.
Where can I see IDP DMX scores?
On the Draft Board's DEF view — 2,987 defensive prospects across the 2004-2026 classes, with scores, deciles, and component breakdowns.