What is DPX (Dynasty Performance Index)?

Data Dictionary · the in-career dynasty value model

Why it matters

Dynasty trade markets run on ADP and vibes, and both lag reality. A player's market price typically takes weeks to absorb a usage change that's visible in the data immediately — a snap-share jump, a target-share collapse, efficiency that the box score hides. DPX exists to price that gap: it's a single, consistently-computed number you can hold up against market value to find players the market hasn't repriced yet, in either direction.

How DPX is calculated

Three observable components, each a z-score, updated from real game data:

On top of the three layers sits a dynasty modifier reflecting contract status and draft-capital decay — the forward-looking context that separates dynasty value from redraft value. A 28-year-old back and a 22-year-old back with identical seasons are not identical dynasty assets, and the modifier is where that difference is priced. As with DMX, the exact layer weights and modifier coefficients are proprietary; the inputs, outputs, and validation are public on the Model Transparency page.

DPX-Next vs DPX-Long

Every player-season gets two deciles, and the spread between them is often the insight:

• DPX-Next — next-season projection. Weighted toward current role and recent production.
• DPX-Long — three-year forward projection. Age, contract, and draft capital matter much more here.

A 30-year-old WR1 can be DPX-Next D1 and DPX-Long D4 at the same time: start him, and shop him. A second-year player breaking out late in the season often shows the reverse pattern — the long-horizon number moves before the market does. Contenders should buy strong DPX-Next; rebuilders should buy strong DPX-Long.

A worked example

From the 2025 season scores — Jonathan Taylor, RB:

Live 2025-season scores from the DPX rankings, June 2026.

All three layers agree here, which is what a no-doubt dynasty RB1 looks like in the data. The interesting players are the ones where the layers disagree — huge scoring on thin volume, or elite volume with cratering efficiency. Those disagreements are where DPX departs from consensus rankings, and where the trade edges live.

Reading DPX like an analyst

Four patterns cover most of the practical value:

• Layers disagree → investigate. Elite Scoring on weak Volume is the classic regression candidate — touchdown-dependent production the market is pricing as repeatable. The reverse profile (elite Volume, soft Scoring) is the quiet buy: opportunity is the stickiest stat in football, and scoring tends to follow it.
• Next/Long spread → match to your timeline. Contenders should pay for DPX-Next and let someone else own the decline tail. Rebuilders should pay for DPX-Long and rent out the present. Most bad dynasty trades are a contender buying a Long asset or a rebuilder buying a Next asset.
• DPX moves before ADP does. Market prices absorb role changes slowly; the component z-scores absorb them the week they happen. The gap between a player's DPX trajectory and his market price is the trade window — it closes as consensus catches up.
• Respect the modifier. When a veteran's raw production looks fine but his DPX-Long sags, that's age, contract, and draft-capital decay being priced deliberately. Overriding it means betting the player beats his actuarial table — sometimes right, never free.

DPX vs DMX

The two are deliberately orthogonal. A rookie carries his DMX score into the league as the prior; from his first NFL season onward, DPX takes over as the live read. When a player's DPX trajectory breaks sharply from what his DMX predicted — in either direction — that's exactly the situation the Analytics residual tools are built to study.

Using DPX on the platform

• DPX Rankings — current DPX-Next and DPX-Long deciles with full component breakdowns.
• My Leagues — sync an MFL or Sleeper league and see your actual roster scored by DPX.
• Model Transparency — methodology, validation, and known limits for both models.

Frequently asked questions