What is DPX (Dynasty Performance Index)?

Data Dictionary · the in-career dynasty value model

Why it matters

Dynasty trade values run on ADP and vibes, and both of them lag. A guy's role changes in Week 3 — his snap share jumps, or his targets quietly dry up — and the market takes weeks to catch up. Sometimes it never does. That lag is where you make your money.

So I built DPX to price it. One number, computed the same way for every guy in every season, that you can hold up next to whatever your leaguemate thinks he's worth. When those two disagree, you've got a trade. It works in both directions, and honestly the sell side is where most folks leave money on the table.

How DPX is calculated

Three pieces, each one a z-score, all of it updated off real game data:

Sitting on top of those three is a dynasty modifier for contract status and draft-capital decay. That's the part that makes this a dynasty number instead of a redraft number. Give me a 28-year-old back and a 22-year-old back who just put up the same season, and I'm not paying the same for them. Nobody should. The modifier is where that gets priced.

Same deal as DMX on the weights. How I blend the layers, and what the modifier coefficients are, I keep to myself. Everything else is out in the open on the Model Transparency page — the inputs, the outputs, the validation.

DPX-Next vs DPX-Long

Every player-season gets two deciles, and the gap between them is usually where the interesting stuff lives:

• DPX-Next — next season. Leans on his current role and what he just did.
• DPX-Long — three years out. Age, contract, and draft capital carry a lot more weight here.

Take Derrick Henry in 2025. He's 31, and DPX-Next still has him D1, because he's one of the best backs you can start. DPX-Long has him D3. Both of those are true at once, and together they tell you what to do: start him, and shop him. Now flip it. Tyler Warren, the rookie tight end in Indy, came out D2 on Next and D1 on Long. The long-horizon number moved first, which is what a young guy looks like right before the market wakes up to him.

My rule of thumb: if you're contending, buy Next and let somebody else hold the decline. If you're rebuilding, buy Long and rent out the present. Most of the genuinely bad dynasty trades I've watched come down to a contender paying for Long or a rebuilder paying for Next.

A worked example

Let me walk one through. Here's Jonathan Taylor off the 2025 season scores:

Live 2025-season scores from the DPX rankings, June 2026.

All three layers point the same direction, which is what a no-doubt RB1 looks like in the data. Fine. You didn't need me for that one.

The guys worth your time are the ones where the layers fight each other — big scoring sitting on thin volume, or monster volume with the efficiency falling out from under it. That's where DPX walks away from the consensus rankings, and that's where the trades are.

Reading DPX like an analyst

Four patterns cover most of what you'll actually use this thing for.

• When the layers disagree, go look. Elite Scoring on weak Volume is your classic regression candidate, touchdown-dependent production that the market is pricing like it repeats. Usually it doesn't. The flip side is the quiet buy: heavy Volume with soft Scoring. Opportunity is the stickiest stat in football, and the scoring tends to come find it.
• Read the spread, not just the score. A D1 is not a D1 is not a D1. Two guys can both sit at DPX-Next D1 and be completely different assets once you see where their Long number lands. Check both before you pull the trigger.
• DPX moves before ADP does. Market prices absorb a role change slowly. The component z-scores absorb it the week it happens. The gap between where a guy's DPX is trending and what he's going for in your league is your window, and it closes as everybody else catches on.
• Respect the modifier. When a veteran's raw production still looks fine but his DPX-Long is sagging, that's age and contract and draft capital getting priced on purpose. You can override it. Just know you're betting the guy beats his actuarial table. Sometimes that's right. It's never free.

DPX vs DMX

I built the two so they wouldn't overlap. A rookie carries his DMX score into the league as the prior, and from his first NFL season on, DPX takes over as the live read. When a guy's DPX trajectory breaks hard from what his DMX said he'd be, in either direction, that's exactly what the Analytics residual tools are built to chew on. Those breaks are my favorite thing in the whole database.

Using DPX on the platform

• DPX Rankings — current Next and Long deciles for everybody, with the component breakdowns.
• My Leagues — sync an MFL or Sleeper league and see your own roster scored by DPX.
• Model Transparency — the methodology, the validation, and where both models fall short.

Frequently asked questions