https://dynastyfootballfan.com/insights.html Deep dives on the model and the draft, with the data behind every take en-us Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00:00 +0000 https://dynastyfootballfan.com/trade-deadline-dynasty-edition-2026 https://dynastyfootballfan.com/trade-deadline-dynasty-edition-2026 Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Cousins to Minnesota makes Jordan Addison a buy, the Colts' receiver sell-off hands the targets to Tyler Warren, and on the IDP side Xavier Watts and Jeffery Simmons are the names to own. strategy data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/decile-2-rookies-five-years-later https://dynastyfootballfan.com/decile-2-rookies-five-years-later Tue, 03 Nov 2026 17:00:00 +0000 The decile 1 study run on decile 2. Tight ends fall from 73% to 29%, a quiet rookie RB stops being a buy, and role, health and passing offense matter even more. draft data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/top-prospects-five-years-later https://dynastyfootballfan.com/top-prospects-five-years-later Fri, 30 Oct 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Every decile 1 DMX rookie from 2001 through 2021, followed for five seasons. Backs and tight ends hit most, slow receivers rarely recover, and IR time tells a big part of the story. draft data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/age-cliff-running-back-problem https://dynastyfootballfan.com/age-cliff-running-back-problem Sat, 03 Oct 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Every top-24 season from 1999 to 2022 and the odds of another one within three years. Backs fall off a cliff at 26. Receivers barely age at all. strategy data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/week-3-signals-from-the-noise https://dynastyfootballfan.com/week-3-signals-from-the-noise Wed, 30 Sep 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Four players breaking out against their 2025 baseline and four who have fallen below it, with the DPX Base and DPX Now figures behind each call. strategy data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/week-1-is-a-liar https://dynastyfootballfan.com/week-1-is-a-liar Sun, 20 Sep 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Five seasons of weekly data on what Week 1 actually predicts. A receiver dud is noise, a running back dud is real, and rookies play by different rules. strategy data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/starting-a-dynasty-league https://dynastyfootballfan.com/starting-a-dynasty-league Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 How to start a dynasty league that lasts - finding committed owners, settling your structure before you shop, and choosing a platform. dynasty strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-league-structure https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-league-structure Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Rosters, scoring, free agency, playoffs and payouts - the structural choices that decide whether a dynasty league survives a decade. dynasty strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-startup-draft-strategies https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-startup-draft-strategies Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Prime years by position, dynasty Zero RB, trading out of the early rounds, and where the real late-round value hides. dynasty strategy draft https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-owners-who-walk-away https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-owners-who-walk-away Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Owners leave. Three lessons on listening to your league, planning the transition, and holding steady through the fallout. dynasty strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-trade-negotiation https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-trade-negotiation Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Every trade type worth knowing, the negotiation skills that matter, and the tactics that make me walk away from a deal. dynasty strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/buy-low-trading-with-dmx https://dynastyfootballfan.com/buy-low-trading-with-dmx Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Using the decile history to find first-decile prospects whose value has cratered - and why the downside is smaller than it looks. dynasty model strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-rookie-draft-strategies https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-rookie-draft-strategies Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Five tenets for rookie drafts, from taking receivers in pairs to why every position matters more than your best one. dynasty draft strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/keep-your-old-quarterbacks https://dynastyfootballfan.com/keep-your-old-quarterbacks Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Age is not the enemy at quarterback that dynasty managers think it is, and selling early is how you end up streaming. dynasty strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/how-to-pick-a-dynasty-quarterback https://dynastyfootballfan.com/how-to-pick-a-dynasty-quarterback Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 QB hit rates by decile, why 0.75 DMX is the line in the sand, and the rules I draft by. dynasty draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/drafting-rookie-running-backs https://dynastyfootballfan.com/drafting-rookie-running-backs Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 The 2026 class graded against DMX, what speed score is actually worth, and why hype beats metrics in rookie drafts. dynasty draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-tight-end-strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-tight-end-strategy Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 At tight end there are haves and have-nots. Deciles 1 and 2 hit at 73%; everything below decile 5 is noise. dynasty draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-wide-receiver-strategy https://dynastyfootballfan.com/dynasty-wide-receiver-strategy Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Wide receiver hit rates by DMX decile, why zero is the line, and who qualifies in the current class. dynasty draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/sneaky-mid-round-rookie-picks https://dynastyfootballfan.com/sneaky-mid-round-rookie-picks Sat, 22 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Five 2026 rookies going well below where the board says they should — Ted Hurst, Kenyon Sadiq, Ty Simpson, Zavion Thomas and Eli Stowers — and why the gap between ADP and DMX is the whole opportunity. strategy draft https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-idp-dmx https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-idp-dmx Tue, 04 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000 DMX for defenders — athleticism, draft capital, and havoc share across 2,987 IDP prospects, with the three components, real decile hit rates (D1 at 59%), and a 2026 worked example. model data draft https://dynastyfootballfan.com/whitepaper https://dynastyfootballfan.com/whitepaper Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Everything under the hood of DMX and DPX — the 25-year dataset, how the pieces fit together, all 12 published validation regressions, decile hit rates on 2,026 completed careers, and where the model falls short. model data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-dmx https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-dmx Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 The DMX rookie score, start to finish — the three pieces behind it, what the deciles actually mean, real hit rates from 20 draft classes, and a worked example off the 2026 board. model data draft https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-dpx https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-dpx Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 DMX's in-career counterpart: how volume, touchdowns and efficiency become DPX Base and DPX Now, and four ways to read the gap like I do. model data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/career-tiers https://dynastyfootballfan.com/career-tiers Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Half of all drafted skill players bust. Here's how careers sort into four tiers, the real base rates from 2,026 completed careers, and why I predict tiers instead of points. model data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-vbd https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-vbd Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Why raw fantasy points lie to you, how value over replacement fixes it, and what a slope of 52 VBD per standard deviation of DMX actually means for your rookie picks. strategy data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/draft-capital https://dynastyfootballfan.com/draft-capital Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Top-quartile draft capital hits at 49%; the bottom half at 12%. Why the NFL's own behavior is the single best predictor I've got — and where the market still gets it wrong. draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-ath https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-ath Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 The best single combine test correlates just -0.252 with career value, and the WR 40 time is basically noise. How I turn testing into signal — and the workout-warrior trap. draft data https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-awp https://dynastyfootballfan.com/what-is-awp Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Breakout age, market share, phenom declares, dominator shares — how I correct college production for the two things that change what it's worth. draft model https://dynastyfootballfan.com/havoc-share https://dynastyfootballfan.com/havoc-share Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Sacks, TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, and PDs as a share of a defense's disruption — why share beats counting stats for defenders, across 2,987 IDP prospects. model data