Dynasty Football Fan

So here it is, the decision we’ve all been waiting for since free agency began in early March.  Peyton Manning has chosen the Denver Broncos as his next destination.  This decision has multiple trickle down impacts throughout the league.  Here’s my early take at the fantasy and dynasty impact of the move itself as well as all of the trickle down moves that will possibly go along with it.

Peyton Manning to Denver: So, first things first, while there is a lot of hype around this move let’s be clear, this is a risky move for Denver.  Manning’s age is a bit of a problem, he’ll be 36 in 4 days and the end is near.  Could he play till 40?  Maybe, but usually guys at this age, their careers come to an abrupt end often before they want it to, which leads to the next question, will he be healthy enough to play at consistently high level for an entire season?  Only time will tell this one, from early reports it seems that he can make the throws so the real question is can he take the hits.  If he can, he will dramatically improve the fantasy fortunes of a whole host of players on the Broncos offense.  Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker immediately become fantasy relevant.  It’s hard to say which one will be #1 and #2, but my sense is they both will benefit tremendously.  Daniel Fells is the starter at TE and he will now become a trendy pick-up at that position, as well as backup Dante Rosario. My guess with the tight ends is that they will be better fantasy wise but not elite at all. Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno will also be impacted from a better passing game and more balance and less opportunities.  My expectation here is that McGahee’s value will stay about the same and Moreno will go down with less reps, baring injury to McGahee.  Finally, the Denver defense will spend more time on the field which should also help the stats of their big play makers such as Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller and Champ Bailey.  As for Peyton himself, remember that he had one offensive system tailored to him for his entire career.  He will have to learn the Broncos offense, which he will do with no problems, but don’t expect it to be easy either.  I expect Manning to be a top 10 to 15 QB next season.  He won’t be top 3 where he usually has been.  Now, if he stays healthy and learns the offense, he can definitely be a top 3 to 5 guy once or twice more, but that’s going to be about it for him.

Alex Smith Stays in San Francisco:  As recently as yesterday Miami was said to be in contract negotiations with Alex Smith.  I bet they’re not anymore!  I don’t care how “mad” Alex Smith is at the 49ers for dissing him for Peyton Manning, it would be ridiculous to believe he would pass up going back to San Fran for Miami.  Look for the 49ers to swoop in here and snatch back their QB from the depths of free agency.  The fantasy impact of course is that Alex Smith stays a #2 QB, Vernon Davis retains his top 5 TE status and San Fran WRs are all pretty worthless at this stage.

Tebow to Miami? Due to the size of Mannings contract and Tebow’s contract, Tebow will not be retained.  I’m sure Denver will put him on the market but I can’t imagine anyone would pay for a bad QB that everyone knows will be let go soon. Unless of course you’re the Miami Dolphins.  I’ve been a Dolphin fan for 35 years now and let me tell you they have never had so much stink associated with them as they do right now.  Trading for Tebow would smell of desperation and idiocy and they would become the laughingstock of the league, if that hasn’t happened already.  Tebow’s problem isn’t mechanics and it isn’t footwork, those are bad but not impossible to overcome.  Tebow’s problem is that he cannot read defenses.  He’s a one read guy that will pull and run rather than risk an interception which leads to deceivingly good QB efficiency numbers but a bad QB.  The clammer for Tebow to start, where ever he goes, will be too much to overcome despite the fact that he need to develop another 2-3 years before he’s put back on the field.  If Miami makes the trade, everyone on the offense will go down in value except for maybe Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas.  In my opinion, Miami would be better off taking Ryan Tannehill in the draft.  It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Hasselbeck to Tennessee Look for Tennessee to fall back to re-signing Matt Hasselbeck and continuing to develop Jake Locker.  Tennessee pulled out all of the stops but couldn’t make this deal happen.  If Hasselbeck stays he may start he may not, most likely he will and Kenny Britt will be the main beneficiary of a veteran QB.  That being said, Locker showed some moxie at the end of last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Britt flourish with him too.