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by Ken C.

Manning Mile High, Tebow in Hell! The Fantasy Impact

March 19, 2012 in Dynasty Advise

So here it is, the decision we’ve all been waiting for since free agency began in early March.  Peyton Manning has chosen the Denver Broncos as his next destination.  This decision has multiple trickle down impacts throughout the league.  Here’s my early take at the fantasy and dynasty impact of the move itself as well as all of the trickle down moves that will possibly go along with it.

Peyton Manning to Denver: So, first things first, while there is a lot of hype around this move let’s be clear, this is a risky move for Denver.  Manning’s age is a bit of a problem, he’ll be 36 in 4 days and the end is near.  Could he play till 40?  Maybe, but usually guys at this age, their careers come to an abrupt end often before they want it to, which leads to the next question, will he be healthy enough to play at consistently high level for an entire season?  Only time will tell this one, from early reports it seems that he can make the throws so the real question is can he take the hits.  If he can, he will dramatically improve the fantasy fortunes of a whole host of players on the Broncos offense.  Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker immediately become fantasy relevant.  It’s hard to say which one will be #1 and #2, but my sense is they both will benefit tremendously.  Daniel Fells is the starter at TE and he will now become a trendy pick-up at that position, as well as backup Dante Rosario. My guess with the tight ends is that they will be better fantasy wise but not elite at all. Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno will also be impacted from a better passing game and more balance and less opportunities.  My expectation here is that McGahee’s value will stay about the same and Moreno will go down with less reps, baring injury to McGahee.  Finally, the Denver defense will spend more time on the field which should also help the stats of their big play makers such as Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller and Champ Bailey.  As for Peyton himself, remember that he had one offensive system tailored to him for his entire career.  He will have to learn the Broncos offense, which he will do with no problems, but don’t expect it to be easy either.  I expect Manning to be a top 10 to 15 QB next season.  He won’t be top 3 where he usually has been.  Now, if he stays healthy and learns the offense, he can definitely be a top 3 to 5 guy once or twice more, but that’s going to be about it for him.

Alex Smith Stays in San Francisco:  As recently as yesterday Miami was said to be in contract negotiations with Alex Smith.  I bet they’re not anymore!  I don’t care how “mad” Alex Smith is at the 49ers for dissing him for Peyton Manning, it would be ridiculous to believe he would pass up going back to San Fran for Miami.  Look for the 49ers to swoop in here and snatch back their QB from the depths of free agency.  The fantasy impact of course is that Alex Smith stays a #2 QB, Vernon Davis retains his top 5 TE status and San Fran WRs are all pretty worthless at this stage.

Tebow to Miami? Due to the size of Mannings contract and Tebow’s contract, Tebow will not be retained.  I’m sure Denver will put him on the market but I can’t imagine anyone would pay for a bad QB that everyone knows will be let go soon. Unless of course you’re the Miami Dolphins.  I’ve been a Dolphin fan for 35 years now and let me tell you they have never had so much stink associated with them as they do right now.  Trading for Tebow would smell of desperation and idiocy and they would become the laughingstock of the league, if that hasn’t happened already.  Tebow’s problem isn’t mechanics and it isn’t footwork, those are bad but not impossible to overcome.  Tebow’s problem is that he cannot read defenses.  He’s a one read guy that will pull and run rather than risk an interception which leads to deceivingly good QB efficiency numbers but a bad QB.  The clammer for Tebow to start, where ever he goes, will be too much to overcome despite the fact that he need to develop another 2-3 years before he’s put back on the field.  If Miami makes the trade, everyone on the offense will go down in value except for maybe Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas.  In my opinion, Miami would be better off taking Ryan Tannehill in the draft.  It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

Hasselbeck to Tennessee Look for Tennessee to fall back to re-signing Matt Hasselbeck and continuing to develop Jake Locker.  Tennessee pulled out all of the stops but couldn’t make this deal happen.  If Hasselbeck stays he may start he may not, most likely he will and Kenny Britt will be the main beneficiary of a veteran QB.  That being said, Locker showed some moxie at the end of last season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Britt flourish with him too.

 

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by Ken C.

Top 10 Dynasty Wide Receivers

February 17, 2012 in Dynasty Advise

During the off-season there is a lot of time to think!  What rookies to draft, who to trade for, what new teams to which your free agent players are moving.  This is a great time to start a new series Top 10 Dynasty player articles.  Check out our Top 10 Lists page for the rest of this collection of articles.  I have not included rookies here as there is no telling what situations they will get into at this point and how any of them will react to the rigors of an NFL season.  We have a separate ranking section for rookies here.

Note: If you’re a die hard dynasty player, there is no need to read this paragraph.  If you are not, keep in mind this is dynasty value of current running backs in the NFL.  While some of these players may be top producers next year, some will not.  Dynasty value lies not only on how a player will produce next year, but how they will produce in coming years, how long they can produce over time, the quality of the team they are on, the opportunity that they currently have or potentially have in the coming few years.

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR DET – Megatron, what more can you ask for?  Great QB? Check.  Productive offense? Check.  Plenty of red zone targets? Check.  Size, speed, hands, youth? Check, check, check and check!  He’s at the top of his game and he’s only 26.  Feel fortunate if you have him.
  2. Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG –  The G-men have found a passing game and while Victor Cruz is a key component, don’t fool yourself into believing he’s the #1 WR.  That designation belongs to Hakeem Nicks and it showed in the playoff run.  He’s still only 24, he has a QB that is peaking at the right time in his career and he has Victor Cruz to keep him from two much double teaming. He should be productive for a long-time to come.
  3. Greg Jennings, WR GB – Jennings was hurt the last 3 games in 2011 or else he would have been a top 10 WR this season.  Instead that distinction went to Jordy Nelson.  No matter, Jennings does have to contend with a ball distribution type of offense, but the offense is so productive and he’s only 28, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be uber-productive for 5 more years.
  4. Jordy Nelson, WR GB – I couldn’t get myself to place Nelson in front of Jennings but I have no problem puttin him right behind him.  Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are young and there is no sign of this offense slowing down.  Nelson is only 25 and is the unquestioned #2 target in this offense.  Don’t sleep on him.
  5. Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI – If Fitz had the QB situation that Megatron has, he’d be #2 on this list.  He doesn’t, but he’s been productive despite that.  Before he retires his QB situation will get better (can it get any worse?) and so will his stats.  He’s still only 28 and has plenty of time left to produce.
  6. Percy Harvin, WR MIN – Harvin is only 23, finished just outside of the top 10 in 2011 and quietly had a very nice run at the end of the season, even during the time Adrian Peterson was still playing.  The QB situation will get better in Minnesota and with AP hurt, he has a chance to establish himself as the stat producer he was at Florida next season.
  7. A.J Green, WR CIN – Green would be higher if it weren’t for the fact that the 6 above him are almost just as young and more productive now.  That being said, his talent and productivity as a rookie speaks for itself and he will be somewhere on this list for many more years to come.
  8. Julio Jones, WR ATL – Green and Jones will always be compared so why not put them side by side on the list?  Jones was very productive in his own right, he is not the #1 guy but he will be eventually (although Roddy White shows little signs of slowing down right now).  If you have him, you are a happy man.
  9. Kenny Britt, WR TEN – Britt was injured last year and the year before so he is now on the injury prone list.  That being said, when he’s on the field he is ridiculously productive and he’s only 23.  If he can stay healthy and put it all together next year, not only will he be a perennial top 10er, he’ll be much higher on this list.
  10. Mike Wallace, WR PIT – Now the unquestioned #1 WR in Pittsburgh with a great QB and a poor running game (did you ever think you’d here that about the Steelers?), Wallace is only 25 and should stay productive for a long time.  He’s kind of a one trick pony, not as athletic and big as most other guys on this list.  That said, he’s fast as heck and productive and that’s all you need in a top 10 WR.

Also Considered:

  • Andre Johnson, WR HOU – Some will argue with this and I understand, but he’s 30 now and oft-injured
  • Vincent Jackson, WR SD – Only 28 but has ups and downs
  • Wes Welker, WR NE – Will be productive but is 30 now and will start to decline as speed leaves him
  • Victor Cruz, WR NYG – One more year like the last and he may well crack the top 10. Only 25
  • Marques Colston, WR NO – Injuries have slowed him from year to year but still a productive guy
  • Roddy White, WR ATL – The only problem with White right now is age, he will be a top 10er a couple of more years, then fade
  • Brandon Marshall, WR MIA – Showed in the Pro Bowl, just needs a QB
  • Dwayne Bowe, WR KC – Young and productive but too inconsistent to get into the top 10
  • Dez Bryant, WR DAL – See Dwayne Bowe
  • DeSean Jackson, WR PHI – See Dez Bryant

Not Considered:

  • Steve Smith, WR CAR – Can he do it again next year, maybe, but he’s 32, the clock is ticking
  • Steve Johnson, WR BUF – #1 receiver on your team doesn’t mean you’re actually a #1 receiver
  • Anquan Boldin, WR BAL – At 31, past his prime and inconsistent QB play
  • Pierre Garcon, WR IND – This could change but not productive enough
  • Reggie Wayne, WR IND – at 33, he’s done, no matter what situation he gets into as a free agent
  • Brandon Lloyd, WR STL – Actually like his situation, but at 30 years old, time is running out

 

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by Ken C.

Third Year Wide Recievers to keep an eye on

May 17, 2011 in Fantasy Advise

If you’re a seasoned fantasy footballer you’ve learned many “rules of thumb” over the years.  One of the most well known rules of thumb is that wide receivers tend to break out in their third year.  Of course, as with any rule of thumb, it’s not universally true but it’s a good idea to keep an eye on third year receivers to be able to stay ahead of the curve.   Here is a list of third year wide receivers and they’re possible break-out value for the upcoming season.

Note:  already broken out and no need to be on this list: Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks and Mike Wallace

  • Michael Crabtree – He’s already the #1 receiver in San Fran but hasn’t truly broken out.  Look for good things this year, especially if Colin Kaepernick works out well.
  • Kenny Britt – Flashes of brilliance on the field, all kinds of trouble off the field.  Although he’s had some spectacular games he’s yet to put it all together.  If he doesn’t get suspended (a big IF) this could be the year.
  • Percy Harvin – Already a great contributor but migraines and poor QB play have hampered his production.  I’m not sure he’ll ever get rid of the migraines, but if he can stay on the field he can put it all together this season.
  • Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi – Cleveland’s pair of third year receivers have a developing QB to throw to them and are both in the starting lineup.  Either one has a chance to shine this year.
  • Brandon Tate – This one is a long shot but with Randy Moss off the roster there is a chance that Tate could continue to develop so he’s worth keeping an eye on.
  • Louis Murphy – Has been fairly productive when not injured and has had plenty of experience his first two years.
  • Austin Collie – Always a chance to break out when Peyton is your QB.
  • Johnny Knox – burst on the scene with a couple of good years, could this be the year he takes off in Mike Martz’s offense?

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