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by Ken C.

Top 10 Dynasty Quarterbacks

February 18, 2012 in Dynasty Advise

During the off-season there is a lot of time to think! What rookies to draft, who to trade for, what new teams to which your free agent players are moving. This is a great time to start a new series Top 10 Dynasty player articles. Check out our Top 10 Lists page for the rest of this collection of articles. I have not included rookies here as there is no telling what situations they will get into at this point and how any of them will react to the rigors of an NFL season. We have a separate ranking section for rookies here.

Note: If you’re a die hard dynasty player, there is no need to read this paragraph. If you are not, keep in mind this is dynasty value of current running backs in the NFL. While some of these players may be top producers next year, some will not. Dynasty value lies not only on how a player will produce next year, but how they will produce in coming years, how long they can produce over time, the quality of the team they are on, the opportunity that they currently have or potentially have in the coming few years.

  1. Aaron Rodgers, QB GB – At 28 and after two spectacular seasons, Aaron Rodgers tops the list of dynasty QB studs. He has plenty of awesome skill players around him and despite losing his Offensive Coordinator should have no problem keeping on a role for several more years. If you have him, thank your lucky stars!
  2. Cam Newton, QB CAR – I know I will catch some flak for this one but hear me out. There will be better QBs in the coming year or two but nobody in the league is playing at a higher level at his age. At only 22, Newton has a lot to improve around his passing game but what he lacks there he more than makes up in the running game. Even if he has a sophomore slump, he still deserves to be in this spot. He’s shown he has the talent to be a dynasty stud for another 10 years.
  3. Matthew Stafford, QB DET – He’s only 24 and finally stayed healthy enough to show his true potential. With Megatron at his side there is no doubt that this dynamic duo has a chance to re-write the record books for a QB/WR combination. The Lions showed last year that they have the talent to compete and Stafford should be a top 5 QB for many more years.
  4. Drew Brees, QB NO – There is no doubt that Brees will be a top 3 QB as long as he plays the game (and is not injured). That being said, he’s 33 and he won’t be playing for that much longer. That hurts his dynasty value and hence why he is at #4 on this list.
  5. Tom Brady, QB NE – See Drew Brees (except Brady is 34).
  6. Eli Manning, QB NYG – Eli had a rather pedestrian start to his career but now at the age of 31 he’s won 2 Super Bowls and had a top 5 fantasy season. He’s got 4-6 more years in him and while he will not always be a top 5 guy, he will definitely be a top 10 guy as long as he has Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to catch his passes.
  7. Matt Ryan, QB ATL – Ryan has been good in his career but has yet to be great. That said, he’s only 26 and had a blistering second half of 2011. I believe he’ll take that momentum with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez and bring it in 2012, finally establishing himself as a perennial top QB. If he does, he has many more years to try to duplicate it, so he’s definitely on my top 10.
  8. Philip Rivers, QB SD – Rivers in now 30 years old and has been a successful fantasy QB for some time now. He’s never a top 3 type of guy but he has enough weapons and the gun to keep him going for another 5-6 years. One word of caution, Vincent Jackson may be gone this season and Antonio Gates is chronically injured, if San Diego doesn’t find quality replacements, it could hurt Rivers future value.
  9. Tony Romo, QB DAL – Love him or hate him, he may not be a great Super Bowl quality QB but he’s a fantasy stud. He’s 31 so he’s on the tail end but he still has several more years to be productive. Dallas has a lot of weapons so his only risk is them getting tired of his mistakes that cost them playoff games and attempt to move on to another QB.
  10. Andy Dalton, QB CIN – This guy got the luck of the draw and Cincy picked A.J. Green to pair up with Dalton. Not that Dalton was shabby, he wouldn’t be on this list if I thought that. He’s here because he has a solid season last year, showed some real moxie and finished in the top 20. He’s only 24, so if he continues to improve he has the potential to be a top 10 QB for 7 to 10 years. There is no doubt he’ll lean on Green throughout.

Others Considered:

  • Peyton Manning – He’s 36 and there is just too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on the list. It’s a sad day.
  • Ben Roethlisberger – He’s only 29 but believe it or not he’s only been in the top 10 for fantasy stats twice in his career.
  • Michael Vick – One good season (2 yrs ago) does not impress me. He’s injury prone and will be 32 next season.
  • Joe Flacco – He’s very young for sure but has been very inconsistent and hasn’t proven he could be a top 10 guy yet.
  • Mark Sanchez – Seriously?
  • Alex Smith – At 27 he has the potential to get better, but his coach is a run oriented guy and that will limit him.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick – He’s a gunslinger but has yet to prove he could produce a whole season and he’s 29.
  • Tim Tebow – See Mark Sanchez.
  • Josh Freeman – Another young guy who could get there but has been too inconsistent to make the list now.
  • Matt Schaub – He’s fairly young but injury prone and has only played 16 games in 2 of his 5 seasons in Houston.
  • Jay Cutler – Had been in the top 10 before but hasn’t proven he can do it again.
  • Sam Bradford – Definitely could make the top 10 in the future but still a lot to prove right now.

Not Considered:

  • Rex Grossman
  • Matt Hasselbeck
  • Colt McCoy
  • Carson Palmer
  • Blaine Gabbert
  • Christian Ponder
  • Kevin Kolb
  • Matt Moore
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by Ken C.

2011 Fantasy Studs Who Will Be 2012 Fantasy Duds

February 10, 2012 in Fantasy Advise

There is always excitement when a player breaks out to have a great year and most people draft in the following year thinking that production will continue.  All to often it does not, leaving you with a dud high draft pick and another year drowning your fantasy sorrows.  With this in mind, here are a few players who may not live up to the hype they created for themselves in 2011:

  • Victor Cruz – He won’t fall off the map, but defenses will start to key on him, which they didn’t in 2011.  The Patriots essentially shut him down in the Super Bowl with their lousy secondary, do you think nobody noticed?
  • Cam Newton – My guess is he either gets hurt and is not as productive or teams take away the run and force him to throw which limits his productivity from 2011.
  • Michael Turner – he’s 29 this coming season and is showing signs of wear and tear.  Do you want to risk taking him in the 2nd round and having him fall apart on you?
  • Frank Gore – Ditto
  • Michael Bush – Good RB but Run DMC will be back and although he’s an injury risk, he’s better than Bush and will get the starting nod?
  • Steve Smith – He’ll be 33 next season, do you really think he can hit the top 10 one more time?
  • Rob Gronkowski – Ok, he’ll still be a stud, but there is absolutely no way he gets as near as many TDs as he did last season.
  • Tony Gonzalez – He’ll be 35 next season.
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by Ken C.

Carolina is in the unenviable #1 Slot in the 2011 NFL Draft

March 9, 2011 in Fantasy Advise

Let’s face it, Andrew Luck screwed the Carolina Panthers.  Well, actually it was probably a great decision by Luck as Jerry Richardson is a hard line owner that doesn’t pay premiums for anyone.  But Carolina is totally screwed.  there is no bonified #1 pick in this draft.

Cam Newton?  Not a chance, that would be a reach of epic proportions with his lack of pro offensive experience, he’s Tebow lite, and Tebow was lucky to be even picked in the first round last year.

Nick Fairley?  Possibly, but there are questions on both his size coming out of the combine and character in general.

Da’quan Bowers?  Now we’re talking.  While he wouldn’t be #1 in most year’s drafts, this year is different.  Ron Rivera is a defensive-minded coach and the Panthers did not have much of a pass rush last year after Julius Peppers left.  A real possibility here.

A.J. Jones?  I would have said this was a possibility pre-combine as Steve Smith isn’t getting any older and may not even be on the team next year.  But after Julio Jones scorched the track at the combine A.J. just doesn’t look that appealing as a top pick.  He may have more consistent hands, but Green and Jones are 1 and 1a and neither merit the top pick.

Marcell Darius?  Again, defensive minded coach, sizable SEC quality DT, this is a good possibility too.  It really depends on what Rivera thinks is his priority coming into the season, stuffing the run or the pass rush with Bowers.

After these guys there really are no #1 guys left.  Patrick Peterson?  When was the last time a CB was picked first?  Von Miller? Too small.  Blaine Gabbert?  See Cam Newton above.  Bottom line is that Carolina will most likely choose defense, which would be the best they can do in this draft, and hope to get a veteran QB to compete with Jimmy Clausen while he continues to develop into a possible future starter.