Rookie Rankings

The Top 15 Offensive Fantasy Rookies

Trent Richardson, RB CLE- The top RB landed in the perfect situation. He’s a lock for the first spot in all rookie drafts and while I think the comparisons to Adrian Peterson are hyperbole, he’s not too far off either. Richardson has the intangibles but he’s not the fastest nor shiftiest guy in the world. He knows how to find the hole and he’s powerful though and those are two great attributes to have in the NFL
Andrew Luck, QB IND- As expected Luck went to Indy where he’ll be the QB for a long time. He won’t live up to the hype his rookie season, but by year 3 he’ll be a top 10 QB.
Robert Griffin III, QB WAS- RB3 has a lot of hype right now and rightfully so with the Heisman win and incredible season statistically. The concern here isn’t accuracy or arm, it’s more the ability to read defenses. If he can show that at all during the pre-season, he could be a find. He’s also not a huge guy, so injury is a concern. Washington will put him out there too, so he could be successful early, but don’t get any ideas that he will do a Cam Newton his rookie year.
Doug Martin, RB TB – Martin rocketed up the boards when Tampa took him at the end of the first round. While many will take him before the QBs above him on my list, I have him a tier below the top 3. It’s assumed by the media that he’ll trounce LeGarrette Blount but that’s not a given, so temper your expectations until training camp roles around. Over time though, he will be a really good all around RB, especially in PPR leagues.
Justin Blackmon, WR JAX- I’m holding my nose and putting Blackmon here. Jacksonville is where good WRs go to die, so don’t expect much for a while here. He’ll have lots of opportunities but he’s not AJ Green so secondaries will have an easy time locking him down until he gets a better QB and another WR to take the pressure off of him. He’s in the 5 spot purely due to talent.
David Wilson, RB NYG- A RB from Virginia Tech, what else do you need to know? Seriously, I think he’s a good back, not a great one, but NYG was a great place to land and I can see him taking over from Ahmad Bradshaw some day, possibly even late in 2012. A great PPR play too.
Michael Floyd, WR ARI- He’s bigger, faster and stronger than Blackmon and he has Fitzgerald on the other side of the field. This is a great situation for Floyd. Not only does he learn from the master, he gets one on one coverage all the time.
Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA - Tannehill is an athlete, having played WR for 2 years and QB for 2 years. Miami is really the perfect situation for him and while I don’t think he’ll crack the top 10 in fantasy QB production in his first 2 years, by year 3 or 4 he could well be the best of the bunch this year. Worth a flyer at this stage, that’s for darn sure.
Alshon Jeffrey, WR CHI – I love his size/hands and productivity in the SEC. Much like Floyd, I love his situation. While Floyd has a better veteran WR to learn from, Jeffrey has a better QB. He could be as valuable as Floyd and Blackmon in Chi-Town and he’s a value at this stage.
Coby Fleener, TE IND – Another guy with a great situation. Fleener will really be the #2 target behind Reggie Wayne right off the bat and with the connection he has with Andrew Luck, could press for top 10 TE stats right away. He’s not a Gronk or Graham though, don’t get carried away.
Kendall Wright, WR TEN – Wright is a good WR in a good situation. Kenny Britt is on the field in Tennessee and so is Chris Johnson, so Wright will find himself with a lot of one on one situations which suites his style of play. It may take some time for him to develop though.
Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN – Hillman shot up the boards when Denver took him. He has some all around skills but is a bit small to be a workhorse type back. That being said, the only person keeping him from the starting job is 30 year old Willis McGahee, so he’s worth a shot at this stage.
Stephen Hill, WR NYJ – Another situation I don’t like with a WR I don’t really care for either. Hill certainly could surprise but he hasn’t caught many passes and he will need time to develop. Throw in the Jets QB situation and it gets ugly with this guy. Again, he’s here due to talent and potential only.
Isaiah Pead, RB STL – See Ronnie Hillman above, except remove McGahee and add Steven Jackson.
Brian Quick, WR STL – Quick might well be the #1 receiver in St. Louis by the end of the season. While I don’t like his skill set as much as the WRs above him on this list, his situation is second to none.