One of the most exciting parts of dynasty football is the rookie draft. Once a year you get to pick players with no track record and a ton of potential who will fill some hole on your roster. Let’s be honest though, rookie drafting is a risky proposition and in my experience, in 10 years of commissioning a dynasty league, at best you have a 50/50 chance of any particular pick making an impact on your team. I’ve had 1st round busts and 5th round (out of 5) studs and everything in between. So how do you stack the cards in your favor? Here are a few tenets that I keep in mind when making my picks annually. They are in no particular order but they have worked for me over and over again.
Just to level set: Our league’s rookie draft is 5 rounds with 12 teams (60 picks). We use IDPs so we draft both offense and defense. No veterans are allowed to be chosen (we’ve done that in the past but putting the initial waiver wire order equal to the rookie draft order takes care of it for us) and there is no official time limit for choices although you start to get severely heckled if you take more than a minute! We also do the draft within two weeks of the start of the season to allow for tracking during the NFL draft all the way through training camp. We then have 1 week to cut our rosters to 40 players.
Tenet #1 – Two WR are Better Than One
In almost every draft in which I’ve taken a WR I’ve actually taken 2. Here’s my rational: WRs take longer to develop for the most part (i.e. the 3rd year WR rule) and even then there is a lot of variability around 1st and 2nd round NFL WRs. If you take two that you like in the first 3 rounds there are only 3 scenarios that will occur and two of them are favorable. Scenario #1, both WRs develop into productive players for you. Scenario #2, one develops and the other is a bust. Scenario #3, both WRs are a bust. Now, Scenario #1 is both obvious and rare but Scenario #2 is also a darn good deal. If I told you that if you drafted 6 WRs and half would be productive for you, wouldn’t you rather do that over 3 years rather than 6? Now, it’s also possible that Scenario #3 occurs but I’ve found that to be rare too. In 2004 I picked Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Williams, in 2005 it was Mark Bradley and Vincent Jackson, in 2008 it was Chad Jackson and Eddie Royal, in 2009 it was Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jeremy Maclin. Eight WRs in 4 different years and 2 studs (Fitz & Vjax), 1 solid contributor (Maclin) and 5 duds (Heyward-Bey could still develop but…). You’ll notice too that I took them in 2004/2005 then skipped to 2008/2009. Bunches of WRs, that’s how you do it. I picked up Marques Colston as a rookie, Roddy White the year before he broke out and last year Victor Cruz in free agency and I’ve got myself a WR corp. In rookie drafts, 2 WRs are simply better than 1!
Tenet #2 – Your first pick is critical, don’t overreach
This seems stupid, like you don’t even have to say it, right? You’d be surprised how much overreach I’ve seen. Onterrio Smith was a top 3 pick in 2003. Kevin Jones was a top 5 pick in 2004. Mike Bell was a top 3 pick in 2006. It’s not confined to just RBs either. Chad Henne was a top 5 pick in 2008. Not that all of these players didn’t have potential, they did. But I would argue they were all drafted well above their actual potential mostly due to a hunch or a great pre-season. Again, for the most part drafts are a 50/50 proposition, if you miss on a few first round picks in a row, suddenly everyone around you has uber-talent and you don’t. You have to make your first pick count. How do you do that? If you pick in the top half, stick to the top 5 consensus rookies after doing your research online. Don’t pick Mike Shanahan’s rookie RB just because it’s Mike Shanahan’s rookie RB. Don’t take a QB unless it’s Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. If you’re at the bottom of the first round, let the draft come to you. Inevitably you will value 6 or 8 of the top players and one of them will fall to you. Make sure you take that player. After picking Marion Barber in the 4th round in 2005, DeAngelo Williams with pick #6 in 2006, Adrian Peterson with pick #1 in 2007 (Yes, even dynasty veterans have an off year) I felt really good with my RBs and didn’t plan on taking another one in 2008. I had the 10th pick that year and low and behold Rashard Mendenhall fell into my lap. I HAD to take him. Let the draft come to you. You’re first pick is critical, don’t overreach.
Tenet #3 – Never Pick a DB or a Kicker
There is just no value in a rookie draft for DBs and kickers. I’ve done both in the past and have quickly realized the folly of my ways. In 2005 I picked Mike Nugent in the 5th round thinking I was getting the next great kicker. Wow was I proud of myself. Now granted Nugent is alive and kicking (pardon the pun) but he’s never been fantasy relevant and I would have been much better off with a DL or taking a chance on a 2nd tier WR. In terms of DBs I’ve picked Ken Hamlin and Mike Doss in 2003, Bob Sanders in 2004 and Laron Landry in 2006. None of them are on my team and none of them had any fantasy relevance whatsoever. If you use IDPs in your league, take a look at the top 20 DBs last season and tell me how many you would have drafted as a rookie. In my league there were two, Patrick Peterson and Morgan Burnett. Rather than shoot for a needle in a haystack, just don’t draft a DB and pick them up as free agents. As you can tell from above, I stopped drafting DBs in 2006 and I’ve been quite successful picking up different guys every year that fill out my IDP squad that finish in the top 20 (starter quality) for DBs. Never pick a DB or a kicker, there are plenty out there for free.
Tenet #4 – Pick a TE sooner than anyone in the league would expect you to
This is a relatively new one, but it’s been very effective. Let’s set the stage here…two years ago we were breaking into the second round of our rookie draft and midway through the second round is usually when the first TE goes off the board. That year, you might recall, was the year of the TE. Jermaine Gresham was the consensus #1, followed by Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham and Tony Meoki. Now, typically not a lot of TEs are picked in the rookie draft but this year was different. That being said, consensus was that Gresham and Gronkowski were 2nd round material, Hernandez was 3rd round material and Graham and Meoki were guys with big upside to take a flier on in the 4th or 5th round (Remember, Graham had all of 1 season as a college TE at the University of Miami). So, back to the story, Gresham goes at pick 13, Gronk goes at pick 15 and then at pick 19 I take Jimmy Graham. The whole room laughed, they thought I was nuts. Hernandez was taken late in round 3 and Meoki late in round 4. One of the guys during round 4 even forgot that I took Graham and called for him again (which also solicited a round of laughs). You know the rest of the story. TEs are no longer an afterthought in the NFL and they should not be in your league either. Following my success with Graham I took Lance Kendricks during round 2 last year. The jury is still out on Kendricks for sure, but he has the potential to be a top 5 TE in the near future. The point is, if you feel strong enough about a guy, take him where you feel he’s a value, not where the rest of the league values him. Pick a TE sooner than anyone in the league would expect you to and you may well be paid off handsomely in the future.
Tenet #5 – Every Position is Important, Draft Accordingly
This one slightly cuts against the grain of Tenet #3, although I would argue if you can get quality DBs and kickers outside of the draft, they are still important, just not draftable. I’ve won multiple dynasty league championships in my 10 years of playing it. The one thing I’ve learned is to have a well balanced team. In 2011 I won our league again and I had the worst QB situation in the league, bar none. I had Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford and John Skelton. Fitzpatrick was in the top 10 early but dropped out at the end and none of my other QBs even sniffed the top 10 all of last year. Last year I won by being balanced everywhere else and absolutely sucking at QB. In a league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1K, 2DL, 3LB and 2DB, although I didn’t have a starting quality QB, I had 2 top 20 RBs, 4 top 10 WRs, 3 top 10 TEs, 2 top 10 Ks, the top 2 DLs (Jared Allen and JPP), 3 top 30 LBs and 2 top 20 DBs. Depth everywhere else carried me to the championship this season. The lesson here, every position is important and you should draft accordingly. Every draft has a different strategy depending on the depth at each position in the draft and your needs. If the draft is strong at DL and you need depth there, draft early and often. If you don’t need a RB, get depth in the first round at WR or QB. Make sure you see what positions are deep in each draft and try to focus on how you can exploit that, either by taking early and often or waiting for quality late and using early picks at a different position of need. The point is, every draft needs a different strategy. Make sure you have one that will focus on your needs as well as the talent that presents itself in any given year.
I know our drafts are still months away, but these tenets are always worth talking about!
Editor’s Note: I also write for dynastyleaguefootball.com and this article was originally posted there. Out of the kindness or their hearts and my desire to include my writing on this site no matter where it’s been posted, it’s been re-posted here!